Getting down to scrum

New Zealand arrived this week in the UK as the number-one ranked nation but, although dual World Cup winners, have only ever won on home turf.

Australia, the next ranked team, boast a great World Cup history of upsetting the favourites and enter the tournament having recently claimed the Investec Rugby Championship, albeit with home advantage in the key fixtures.

South Africa has been blighted by ‘quota’ (or to use the new terminology, ‘transformation’) arguments and indifferent form, while England have home advantage but one of the most inexperienced squads in the tournament.

Throw into the mix the All Blacks second team representing Scotland, a resurgent French unit and additional threats from Wales and Ireland, all playing in familiar conditions, and you have one of the most open tournaments in living memory.

Rugby World Cups, like their cricket equivalent, can be somewhat predictable in the opening rounds with established nations effectively warming up for the knock-out stages with games against developing countries. Unless there is an early upset even fixtures between the better teams can be docile with players concerned about picking up an injury.

Not this time! Pool A is as tough as it gets.

While most are focusing on the fixtures between Australia, England and Wales, Fiji are ranked ninth in the world (above Scotland and Samoa), meaning that four of the top 10 rugby union countries are fighting for the two places available.

What’s more, top place in the pool is also worth more than bragging rights – if other results go according to form the top team should avoid South Africa in the quarter-final and New Zealand in the semi.

Uruguay is the only ‘whipping’ team in the group meaning that who plays which opposition, and when, could be vital.

While England have home advantage they play Wales after Fiji while the Welsh will only have played Uruguay, while their Australian match-up comes immediately afterwards.

Australia will also have had the chance to rest players against the weakest team in the group and also benefit from playing Fiji in their opener only five days after the Pacific islanders open the tournament against the hosts.

England, therefore, have to hit their best form from the outset of the tournament, while the Aussies and Welsh receive easier starts before taking on the hosts. However, if England beat either of these sides then the final group placing may be dependent on the Australia v Wales match at Twickenham on October 10.

Of course, this does not account for the surprise factor of the Fijians. Everyone’s ‘second team’ and romantic favourites following their dramatic victory over Wales in 2007, their unpredictability is a strength and they are again tipped to claim another large scalp.

They have more experience than many perceive with a number of their squad plying their trade in the lucrative French league as captain and back-row favourite, Akapusi Qera, played at Gloucester while they also have players at Leicester (Goneva), London Irish (Tikoirotuma), Bath (Matawalu) and Harelquins (Talei).

However, their star attraction is the former Australian U20 wrecking-ball, Nemani Nadolo. Coming off the wing at a terrifying pace and weighing in at over 19st this Pacific-island talisman has already scored 15 tries in 19 internationals – and he kicks for the team as well! His side will be hoping for a similar impact to the one that Jonah Lomu had on England in 1995 when he scored four tries.

Fiji’s weakness lies in the front row of the scrum and in the depth of their squad, with several Fiji-based amateurs completing the squad. They are likely to get weaker further into the tournament although the opposition should underestimate them at their peril.

Home fans will be optimistic given some strong recent performances although wary of inconsistency and a perception that coach Stuart Lancaster is still not sure of his best side. Successive second-place finishes in the Six Nations does not provoke hope when pitted against the strength of the southern hemisphere although there is a belief that, if this young side’s new-found attacking prowess can match their traditional strengths in the scrum, then they can go the whole way, despite the leadership claiming they are only building towards 2019.

Indeed George Ford, Henry Slade and Anthony Watson could be playing international rugby for another decade. They have brought fresh ideas and impetus to the England side, yet this youthful vigour comes at the cost of experience. Chris Robshaw will need to forge his side into a collective greater than the sum of its individual talent.

Wales has been cruelly stripped of two of its greatest and most dependable talents in Rhys Webb and Leigh Halfpenny. While other countries have also been beset by injuries none have been so close to the start of the competition. There are more than capable replacements in Mike Phillips and Liam Williams although neither offer a contribution comparable to what has been lost leading to a collective groan around the valleys despite Williams bringing possibly an even greater attacking threat with his bristling attitude.

Sam Warburton and Scott Williams have been excellent while George North and Dan Biggar, who is expected to take over the kicking duties, are always an imposing threat.

Warren Gatland has a reputation for motivating his sides to rise to the big occasion with their 30-3 defeat of England in 2013 still fresh in the memory. At their best they can still challenge any side although the strength of their squad will be tested to the limit in the coming weeks.

Australia has been resurgent in the past year with new coach, Michael Cheika, the only coach to win a major championship in both the northern and southern hemisphere, accredited with the upturn that has seen them defeat the All Blacks and Springboks.

David Pocock is back to partner Michael Hooper providing menace at the breakdown while the oft-criticised scrum has also held its own to provide the talented backs the platform to score heavily. Israel Folau is possibly the best full-back in the world with Quade Cooper and Will Genia also household names. Keep an eye out for the 140kg Will Skelton.

The speed of play and force of the impacts in international rugby make it a more attritional game than ever before meaning the substitutes bench now consists of players designed to make an impact rather than provide a simple replacement option. However, in a tournament these resources will be tested to the limit.

The nation that wins will be the one that has a large volume of quality players that are able to fit seamlessly into the squad that remains deep into the tournament.

Wales will have to immediately overcome the loss of two of their strongest players, in much the same way that the All Blacks had to cope without Dan Carter in 2011.

New Zealand arrived as defending champions and the top-ranked country, although questions remain over their ability to deliver overseas. History is against them as no nation has ever retained the title.

Conversely, Australia have hit form at the right time and knows how to win in England, who themselves will benefit from playing at Twickenham where they have won seven successive games.

While many question England’s inability to decide on their best starting team, ironically, as a result of the loss of two key players (Hartley and Tuilagli) having these various options may play into their hands should they make it through the initial group.

I believe that the ultimate winner will come from the winner of Group A or the All Blacks and that New Zealand will, on balance, go one better than the final in 1995 and lift the Webb Ellis trophy.