All set for close encounters

What a difference a year makes.

Twelve months ago rugby union fans in the southern hemisphere were joking that the Six Nations championship was a play-off to establish the world’s fifth best team. However, wins for England, Ireland, Wales and even Italy over teams under the equator have changed views.

There is much discussion between pundits, players and coaches to determine which side is likely to provide a proper challenge to the All Blacks. Ireland’s head coach, Kiwi Joe Schmidt, believes it is too close to call.

“If you asked anyone now to predict a one to six in two months’ time I don’t think too many people would get it right,” said the New Zealander. “We are aiming to get back into that top two again, but this is the most competitive Six Nations in the four years since I’ve been here.

The past year England have been indomitable. To go to Australia and win a series 3-0 is an amazing achievement.” To add to the intrigue the British and Irish Lions will travel to New Zealand in the summer and the performance of the players in this championship will go a long way to securing selection. 

Given that the head coach for that tour is also in charge of Wales, expect those wanting to travel to increase their level of intensity under his watchful eye.  The challenge for other coaches will be to ensure that their players stick to the game plan and team strategies rather than getting too caught up in trying to impress.

There are other hurdles to overcome - not least changes to the laws and format.  New rules relating to high tackles coming mid-season without providing players the opportunity to learn and adapt is not ideal although given it relates to player safety the immediate change is understandable.

The Premier League has already seen a number of red and yellow cards issued for such offences. This will force sides to re-think their strategies with the smother tackle, preventing the offload and quick release of ball, now potentially a game-changer if the tackler is sent-off. 

This may open up games and enable free-flowing rugby. Indeed, England captain Dylan Hartley has only just returned having been shown a red card for a head-high tackle on Leinster’s Sean O’Brien in a Champions Cup game in December.

Coaches also have to contend with a new bonus points system this year that will see a team scoring four tries rewarded with a bonus point along with a losing team within seven points of the winners. 

There is also a special three-point bonus for a team winning all five of their matches, presumably to ensure that the whole championship is not skewed at the final reckoning.  The hope is that teams will push harder in the final 20 minutes if they are close to securing a bonus, again leading to a more enthralling championship.

Eddie Jones’s side won a first Grand Slam for England in 13 years in Paris and will head into this championship as favourites. Jones’ young team - the average age of the side was 24 - beat all-comers in 2016 but benefited from a strong fixture list that opened up with clashes against Scotland and Italy before taking on Ireland and Wales at home.

The Red Rose will open their account against the team they defeated to win the Grand Slam, France. However they enter the game with a string of injuries including the Vunipola brothers, try-scoring sensation Anthony Watson and former-captain, Chris Robshaw.

It is the loss of Mako Vunipola at loosehead prop that will be felt the most, particularly as back-up, Jo Marler, recovers from a broken leg. Three home fixtures technically favour England although they face away-trips to their toughest opponents, Wales and Ireland, which will make a repeat of the Grand Slam harder than ever.

2017 is expected to be a challenging campaign for France although, despite recent difficulties, they have seen positive signs. Maxime Machenaud showed great character and consistency when he finally got his chance and he has the potential to be a real leader for France while Yoann Maestri is still a top player that is the bedrock of their pack eschewing optimism thanks to the presence of Wenceslas Lauret.

Perhaps their biggest threat comes in the backs in the form of Wesley Fofana who has real quality. The question remains whether he will appear in the centre of on the wing where he has been more effective.

While England won the plaudits last season they were only inches away from losing it all against Wales … ‘was the foot in touch?’ … is a question many still debate! After finishing second last year they gave a good account of themselves in New Zealand despite losing the series 3-0 before a disastrous home defeat against Australia in the autumn internationals.

However, interim coach Rob Howley has appointed a new captain, Alun Wyn Jones, who he believes has already made a positive impression, generating a new competitive edge. Much will depend on how quickly Leigh Halfpenny and George North can return to form after injury, although both seem to come alive in national colours, often contrasting the performances they produce at club level.

All eyes will be on Ross Moriarty, a former England junior international, who is expected to replace Warburton at flanker, particularly when they host the reigning champions on February 11. Dan Biggar will also need to his form from the 2015 World Cup to release the quality centre pairing of Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies to ensure this back-line is able to perform to its maximum potential.

After back-to-back RBS 6 Nations titles in 2014 and 2015, Joe Schmidt’s Ireland had to settle for third place a year ago. Ireland will start at BT Murrayfield against Scotland before a trip to Rome to take on Italy in round two and Joe Schmidt has named a 40-man squad for those two fixtures.

Schmidt has infused his squad with plenty of fresh talent but that doesn’t mean there’s a lack of experience available to him.

In fact, just among his backs there are six British & Irish Lions included, with Conor Murray and Sexton arguably the most experienced half-back pairing in the competition. Add in a trio of wingers in the shape of the returning Tommy Bowe, Keith Earls and Simon Zebo, and Rob Kearney at full-back, and Schmidt could go for a backline packed with leaders.

In fact it’s only in the centres where he will not have a former Lion to select from but in Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose he has a midfield who have shone both at club level, and, also when given the chance, on the Test stage.

Arguably, no position will see more competition for places than the back row where Schmidt has selected eight contenders - with Iain Henderson also capable of shifting from lock. Leading the way could be CJ Stander, inspirational for Munster, having picked up 18 ‘man of the match’ awards in just 72 appearances for his province.

Not since 2013 have the Scots cracked the top three and they haven’t won three games in a Championship since 2006. After a fourth-placed finish last year - that included victories over both Italy and France - Cotter’s final Championship at the helm could be his best yet.

But the squad has a settled look to it this year and they have three home games in 2017 against Ireland, Wales and Italy. And Cotter’s quote ahead of the Championship shows ambition: “We can be competitive and push for wins in every game,” he said.

Off the back of Italy’s worstever Six Nations campaign, they have three home games to try and end their losing run in the competition. Italy have lost their last seven Six Nations games, and are reeling from a tournament that saw them concede 224 points, a Championship record.

Their domestic sides are having disastrous seasons as well. With this competition as competitive as it is, don’t expect that to change soon!

Abu’s prediction: I feel that England’s loss of key players will cost them over the course of the championship and allow Ireland to take the title – if they can win their first game away to Scotland.