I wrote at the start of the MotoGP season, having listened to Bradley Smith talk about the steep learning curve required to adapt to the heavier and more powerful bikes in comparison to Moto2, that the race for the championship would come down to Pedrosa and Lorenzo with the latter likely to shade it in the end.
This prediction was writing off the chances of Marc Marquez as no rookie had previously secured more than four wins in a season and the previous record-holder, Valentino Rossi, was making the move this season back to his favoured Yamaha. The Doctor had, in the process of becoming the most successful first-timer in what is now 65 years of MotoGP, also secured 10 podiums.
We are now a little over halfway through the season and Marquez has just equalled or surpassed Rossi’s rookie results. His victory on Sunday was his fourth in succession – another record. At 20 years old he is also younger than Rossi was when he made the step up, meaning he is also the youngest to achieve the various feats.
What has impressed me the most is that he has learned to ride sensibly and happily accumulate points when a win is out of reach – he has not pushed himself beyond his or his bike’s limits. In fact his position at the top of the standings is possibly a result of Lorenzo and Pedrosa doing just that, both suffering horrendous injuries from crashes that have resulted in worse performances in subsequent races.
In the races to date it is Marquez that has shown the greater maturity.
On the grid in the Czech Republic last weekend the question had been whether the race would be held entirely in dry conditions. Although there was sufficient rainfall mid-race to have the teams scurrying to prepare the wet-weather bikes, there was not enough to make the riders pit.
Marquez’s ride was a mixture of patience, aggression and defence with the Spaniard running second behind Lorenzo as the reigning world champion scorched off the start line.
The pair would proceed to swap places on various occasions, with the final pass coming at Turn 3 with just under four laps to go. Pedrosa also dispatched of Lorenzo, but two final laps were not enough for last year’s winner to hunt down his teammate who won by three tenths of a second.
In fourth place, Lorenzo’s teammate Rossi ultimately came out on top after a race-long duel with GO&FUN Honda Gresini’s Alvaro Bautista.
Rossi has been written off before, most notably with the emergence of Pedrosa and Lorenzo, although none quite as emphatically as he is now. On the back of these wins some believe Marquez will not only win the championship but dominate for years to come.
Much of that will depend on luck and on the quality of the bike that is at his disposal.
This is also a dangerous sport that brings frequent crashes and numerous injuries. However, his 26-point lead allows him to ride the rest of the season more conservatively, effectively having a whole race as a buffer.
The dynamic that has changed for me with the result at Brno is that this is a circuit that typically favours the Yamaha (along with the next race in England). The long, sweeping curves are better-suited to Lorenzo and Rossi’s bikes which lack the straight-line speed and acceleration of the Hondas.
To secure such a controlled and impressive victory suggests that Yamaha will need to fast-track some upgrades although realistically this will be unlikely before Misano in mid-September.
The first of the seven remaining races is at Silverstone this weekend with British hopeful, Cal Crutchlow, eager to atone for his early exit from the Brno circuit. Despite having qualified on pole, he lost early position and was starting to claw back time on the three leaders when he lost control of his bike.
Bradley Smith suffered a similar crash and will aim to put on a better show for his home fans on a track he knows so well.
Crutchlow has been in the news prior to the race for his decision to switch to Ducati for two years at the end of this season.
On the face of it this may appear to be an odd decision. The Desmosedic have struggled for many years with only Casey Stoner able to ride the bike on the limit without fear to achieve outstanding results.
Conversely, the same team/bike combination was accused of bringing about an early end to the career of Marco Melandri while Rossi failed to win a single race in two years and another Championship winner, Nicky Hayden, has only secured three podium finishes in five years.
All who have left the team have complained about Ducati’s unwillingness to listen to their feedback and implement the necessary changes.
So why has Crutchlow joined a team securing worse victories than his current team? Money? While that may be a factor Ducati presents him with his first opportunity to ride for a factory team with all that entails. Taking risks is what this sport is all about.
However, more important is the change in ownership and management at Ducati that perhaps provides a greater indication as to why this could be a good move.
Audi have taken over and changed the management structure. Furthermore, there are suggestions that, having seen even Rossi fail to paint his home town red, they are willing to listen and make the technical changes required.
It may not happen overnight although it’s not the backwards step that it may at first appear. Alongside former Tech-3 teammate Dovizioso they have a strong combination.
Finally, it’s interesting to see MotoGP follow the trend of going Brazilian as they announced that from 2014 they will return to join the various other major sporting events hosted.
Next season will now see two races in South America as Argentina has already been added.