Huge upset for Marquez

Arriving in Australia before the weekend, rookie MotoGP sensation, Mark Marquez held a comfortable 43-point lead in the championship with only three races remaining.

Just 72 hours later of one of the most bizarre races in MotoGP history and that lead was cut to a less secure 18 as he was disqualified and his leading rival, Jorge Lorenzo claimed the win.

The background to the sequence of events started last year with the resurfacing of the stunning Phillip’s Island circuit.  The new abrasive surface played havoc with the Bridgestone tyres, forcing the race to be reduced in length to 19 laps from 27 and a compulsory pit-stop introduced for the first time in MotoGP history. 

The tyre manufacturer had been unable to guarantee the safety of the riders due to the wear on the rear slicks.  What also appeared to be of little significance was the lengthened pit lane.

The Yamahas of Lorenzo and Rossi were strongest in qualifying with the Mallorcan bizarrely setting the fastest lap with a seagull stuck in his front fork.  While Marquez returned in final qualifying to set a faster lap, he was no match for Lorenzo racing without his pillion passenger, the Yamaha setting a new track record in the final 15-minute shootout.
 
Marquez did have the consolation of having survived a crash to claim a position on the front row.  This helped him secure the season’s trophy for best qualifier.

After a flying start off pole the race, while wheel-to-wheel, looked uneventful by MotoGP standards until the compulsory pit-stops.

Pedrosa, pitting early, was caught unawares by the early pit lane speed limit and saw his back wheel hop as he slammed on the brakes, although too late to prevent a penalty for speeding.

However, the most remarkable event was Marquez’s failure to pit within the pre-agreed window of laps nine and 10. Riding in second position, Pedrosa having had to concede a position, Marquez, who survived a collision with Lorenzo when he rejoined the track, was shown the black flag forcing him to return to the pit lane.

With Lorenzo now holding a comfortable lead attention turned to the final podium position with Rossi, Crutchlow and Bautista regularly exchanging positions.  Admitting that the chance of a podium added motivation, Rossi survived a last lap with rain falling to claim third while Crutchlow timed a last-gasp dive for the line to perfection to claim fourth.

An ever-improving Bradley Smith saw the Bahrain-favourite climb as high as fourth position and claim a creditable sixth.  He looks well placed to rise up the championship table in the final two races.

The MotoGP entourage now heads to Japan and the Motegi Twin Ring circuit with the championship alive. Lorenzo, buoyed by victory that sees him become the first victor at Phillip Island other than Casey Stoner since 2006, still ranks his chances as only 20-30 per cent.
 
I tend to agree. The consistency shown by Marquez, rookie errors aside, suggest that he only has to stay on his bike in the remaining two races to claim a podium in each and a championship win.

However he only needs to look at Moto2 where the previous championship leader, Britain’s Scott Redding, missed the weekend due to a broken wrist sustained in a free practice fall and conceded top spot to Pol Espargaro.  With Redding also due to miss the race in Japan it looks like one championship has been decided in the hospital.

Yet, with Marquez having already demonstrated this season his willingness to ride through the pain, it will take a race fall to see him lose his title.
 
Pedrosa is lurking 16 points behind Lorenzo but looks too far away to win the overall title.
 
Marquez can still technically claim the championship in Japan although it is more likely that he will lift the trophy at the final race in Valencia on November 10.