The ultimate test for cyclists

If the Tour de France was a political contest then recent winners would have won by a landslide which is somewhat ironic given the route for this year’s event has been changed as a result of a mountain slippage in the Isere region.

This promises to be the defining moment of this arduous event as it comes on the penultimate stage and, most significantly, the final climbs in a race that traditionally favours the mountain specialists.

The Col du Galibier has been dropped, much like the peleton will be, in favour of the Col de la Croix-de-Fer before the leaders tackle the famed 21 hairpin bends of Alpe D’Huez.

Particular attention has been paid to the watching TV audiences with time bonuses being allocated in the first week while the time trials have been drastically reduced (unlike in 2012 when Sir Bradley Wiggins won) ensuring the winner will earn the yellow jersey the hard way.

Indeed the Maillot Jaune is likely to change hands throughout a first week that will have the main contenders desperately trying to stay in contention. As Chris Froome found to his cost last year, while you cannot win the race in the first week you can definitely lose it.

Starting in Holland for a record sixth time (Utrecht) on July 4 with a short 13.7km individual time trial, the lowest since the Second World War, the first week has a wide variety of challenges including a seaside finish on Day 2 where cross-winds could be a strong factor that will provide an opportunity for a breakaway. Day 3 brings a short yet steep finish where it will be vital for the teams to do their work to keep the General Classification (GC) contenders at the front and in a strong position to attack should they choose.

However, it is the cobbles of Day 4 that will cause most concern where the nerves will jangle more than the bones, particularly if it rains again. There are seven pave sections with six of these coming in the last 46km.

If you are seeking an early glimpse of the likely winner then watch the final stage in the Pyrenees, which culminates with the beastly 16km Hors Category climb of Plateau de Beille – where, historically, the victor usually goes on to win the Tour.

Also keep a look out for the team time trial, which bizarrely contravenes UCI regulations that stipulate it should be held within the first week of the race. The success of each team will depend on how many of their riders they have lost to injury in the first week. Any team having lost one or more riders will be seriously hindered in this particularly hilly team section that finishes with two climbs.

This is the beauty and the beast of the Tour de France. Forget any triathlon in the world – it is the ultimate test of individual endurance and team performance. This 102nd edition of the race started in 1903 by L’Auto magazine has 21 race days where the riders will cover 3,360km that includes 10 hilly or mountain stages and five summit finishes. Each team has nine cyclists although only one of these will realistically have a chance of winning with the other team members cycling in support as a domestique.

Yet, there is so much that can go wrong that a close race can be rendered obsolete as happened last year when both Froome and Contador were forced to retire leaving Vincenzo Nibali to win by over seven minutes in a race that looked over after he dominated the Stage 5 cobbles.

These three are back again and will be joined by the diminutive yet explosive Colombian, Nairo Quintana, who is regarded by many as being the purest climber in the race, as demonstrated by being named the youngest ever winner of the King of the Mountains jersey in 2013 when he was the only person who could match Froome.

Having won the title in 2013 he never looked comfortable last year, perhaps burdened by the pressure of being the defending champion. Backed by the strongest team that has been designed to support him, Froome is one of the best in the mountains and is a strong time trialist, although always looks uneasy on the cobbled sections. A win earlier this season in the Criterium du Dauphine matches his result in 2013 and suggests he has returned to form.

It is difficult to assess the current performance level of this year’s defending champion, Nibali, who has hidden himself away in the build-up. The ‘Shark of Messina’ is the most aggressive and unpredictable of the main contenders and is perhaps the strongest all-rounder. He will again look to build a lead on the cobbles before using his downhill skills to keep touch in the mountains. Nibali is likely to have his eyes on Stage 17 where a fast, technical descent leads into a sharp climb up to Pra Loup.

This leaves the most experienced of the riders, two-time winner, Alberto Contador, who is aiming to become the first man since Marco Pantani in 1998 to complete the double of the Grand Tours of Italy and France. The last time he tried in 2011 he faded badly in the final week meaning ‘El Pistolero’ will have to rely heavily on his team.

Bizarrely, this is where it gets interesting. Contador’s team includes Peter Sagan, the winner of the last three green (points) jersey. With points being awarded for winning intermediate and final sprints it is unusual to find a team with both (although famously Team Sky had great success with this approach in 2012).

That year Mark Cavendish had to ride in support of Bradley Wiggins, thereby limiting his chances for stage wins. The green jersey is the one coveted by the sprinters, perhaps more so than the yellow!

With Sagan, who has also fallen out with team owner, Oleg Tinkov, unlikely to feature, Cavendish will look to press home his reputation as the greatest sprinter in the history of Le Tour and possibly overtake Bernard Hinault for second place in the list of overall stage wins (25 compared to 28) although he is some way behind Eddy Merckx (34).

With another rival, Marcel Kittel, also not featuring, the Manx Missile will have to watch Andre Greipel who has been in good form, winning two stages of the ZLM tour and taking the points classification in Luxembourg.

Elsewhere, John Degenkolb, who takes over as team leader from Kittel at Giant-Alpecin, could be one to watch although he may focus on breakaway wins having won the classics of Paris-Roubaix (featuring the same cobbles as stage 4) and Milan-San Remo. Another contender is Greg Van Avermaet who shone last year.

One unwanted story as the Tour seeks to distance itself from its doping past, is the return of Lance Armstrong who will controversially be taking on two stages the day before the main tour. The disgraced drug cheat, stripped of his seven consecutive tour titles, will be on his bike raising money for leukaemia sufferers on July 16 & 17 (stages 13 and 14).

Standings from the World Ranking
1. Alejandro Valverde (Spain/ Movistar) 350
2. Alberto Contador (Spain/ Tinkoff - Saxo) 307
3. Richie Porte (Australia/ Team Sky) 304
4. Rui Costa (Portugal/ Lampre) 274
5. Joaquim Rodriguez (Spain/ Katusha) 252
6. Alexander Kristoff (Norway/ Katusha) 237
7. John Degenkolb (Germany/ Giant) 232
8. Fabio Aru (Italy/ Astana) 212
9. Rigoberto Uran (Colombia/ Etixx - Quick-Step) 209
10. Michal Kwiatkowski (Poland/ Etixx - Quick-Step) 195