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Battle royale on the cards

March 30 - April 5, 2011
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After weeks of watching meaningless cricket at the ICC World Cup, one week of the quarter-finals has left me eagerly awaiting the semi-finals.

By the time you read this you will be able to turn to our sister publication the Gulf Daily News and read the result of the first, between co-hosts Sri-Lanka, playing at home in Colombo, and the only remaining team not from the Indian sub-continent, New Zealand.

It is the second semi-final that will have the world watching. This is the match that will probably stop nations from going to work, not just for the two countries directly involved, India and Pakistan.

There is so much history, both on and off the pitch, to this fixture, yet fans have been starved of a rematch other than in a neutral country since the Mumbai bombings in 2008. While victory will result in ongoing celebrations for weeks, if not months, defeat in the past has meant the players' homes and families being targeted with rocks while flags and effigies are burned. Forget Celtic versus Rangers, this is real rivalry!

Situated in the northern Indian city of Mohali it is the closest Pakistan will get to a home match. As a result, it is also one that will perhaps produce conditions most suited to their superior pace attack, albeit one firing without the banned Mohammeds, Aaamer and Asif.

Yet a wicket offering pace and bounce, as does the one at Bindra Sahib's stadium on the outskirts of Chandigarh, is also expected to offer less assistance to the variations offered by the most successful spinners in this tournament.

Spinners have still taken wickets at Mohali, although have been less able to restrict the batsmen from scoring in the process. Shahid 'Boom Boom' Afridi, better known for his explosive batting, has been a revelation having taken 23 wickets to date.

Following his two wickets in the quarter-final drubbing of West Indies I would also expect the Pakistan selectors to go for the guile and variation offered by Saeed Ajmal, although I expect both him and Mohammed Hafeez to disappear for more runs against India.

I would like to see the Indian selectors revert to Yousuf Pathan while retaining the stabilising services of Suresh Raina, both of whom could bowl yet, more crucially, would lengthen a batting order that looked too short in their ultimately successful victory over the Australians.

Harbajan entering the fray at No. 8 looks at least one position too high. Despite the surface favouring pace, I would hope that the recent psychological frailty seen in Patel would see him face the axe, although he does take wickets which will be crucial given the inability of India's spinners (except the excellent Yuvraj Signh) to take wickets regularly.

At this stage I should point out that I have a soft spot for Sreesanth, although a return for the erratic hot-head in this hot-bed atmosphere is rather unlikely. I would love to see a contest involving both him and the steaming Rawalpindi Express, Shoaib Akhtar. If the wicket at Mohali favours pace, I expect Ashwin to make way.

The clear statistical advantage in the batting lies with India. Three batsmen have passed 300 runs for the tournament with another two having cleared the 200-mark. This list excludes their captain MS Dhoni, Pathan and Raina who are all capable of large scores. Not only have they scored a plethora of runs, they have done so quickly.

Compare that to the Pakistan line-up where only Umar Akmal has passed 200 runs for the tournament and even he cannot break into the Indian top 5. They have also scored more slowly than the Indian team with only Umar Gul having a strike rate exceeding 100. I do expect the Pakistan selectors to again plump for Asad Shafiq which will bring some additional stability.

Yet, despite Pakistan having batting statistics bettered by a number of teams, they remain the most successful team in the tournament.

They have lost one match so far, that to New Zealand when, having been dropped twice before reaching double figures, Ross Taylor and Jacob Oram combined with a devastating late assault, scoring 85 runs from the final 22 balls of the innings.

Pakistan will need to hold onto their chances, although, even if they don't, I doubt India will match such explosive hitting.

So, will it be Pakistan's bowlers or India's batters that win the day?

On this occasion I'm going for India ... although please don't throw a TV through my window or burn my car if I'm wrong!







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