True test of credentials

IT’S not often that you enter into an annual tournament with the previous winners being written off – particularly when there are only six teams and two of the alternatives are considered to be even weaker.

However, that is exactly the situation facing Wales as the Six Nations commences this weekend. For a team that swept aside a strong French unit at the Millennium Stadium a mere 10 months ago to secure a Championship clean sweep, how can they now face such a fall in stature?

One of the answers lies in their recent form with seven successive defeats ranking as their worst run since 2002-3. However, closer examination reveals some cause for optimism as the first of these three came in a series away in Australia, never the easiest proposition. 

The narrow and last-minute manner of these left a disappointment that was carried forward into an autumn series against the Southern Hemisphere visitors with defeats to Samoa and Argentina being the catalyst for the low expectations.

The relatively poor performance of the domestic sides in European competition is also cited as a reflection of Wales’s deteriorating powers, although the lure of the French lucre is a greater rationale. 

Many watching from the outside have blamed their interim coach, Rob Howley, for their poor recent form, although intriguingly ahead of this intense competition, he now claims that it was the lingering presence of full-term coach, Warren Gatland, that was giving mixed messages and causing confusion.

Free from this influence with Gatland concentrating on his Lions duties, Howley is claiming that the Wales we will witness will be more focused and are genuine contenders.

Led by the highly-effective captain, Sam Warburton, who will be joined by the in-form open-side specialist, Osprey’s Justin Tipuric, Wales can lead this tournament from the front, although they will also be hoping that the mighty hair of Adam Jones is present in the pack as the Merthyr man’s grit marks him as one of their most valuable assets. 

In the back-line they have the massive George North yet the presence of the in-form Ospreys’ wing, Eli Walker, has generated speculation that he could move inside to centre, although this is an area where Wales already boast strength in the form of Roberts, Davies and Williams.

Neighbours England are at the opposite end of the confidence spectrum following their record 38-21 victory over the All Blacks. It is difficult to believe that it is only 12-months since Stuart Lancaster took control and did so by introducing 15 new recruits to his squad.

The return to form of Saracens’ winger Chris Ashton will provide England with a finisher to complement the breakaway capability of Manu Tuilagi. However, it was the lack of change in the squad selected by Lancaster that demonstrated, perversely, how much has changed in the year since he took charge. That is with the exception of expectations!

Opportunities have been handed to Burns, Twelvetrees, Youngs and Launchbury with the former aimed at providing greater creativity, probably off the bench, with Farrell now being seen as an established selection.

Prior to the New Zealand performance, the autumn series had brought question marks over the consistency of their performance and it will be this area that they need to address. Three home matches at ‘Fortress Twickenham’ should provide healthy points tallies over their all-blue rivals, leaving their away fixtures against Wales and Ireland as the greatest test of their credentials.

The opening match will provide a barometer for the remainder of England’s chances although they will need to defeat the Auld Enemy by a comfortable margin to generate continued optimism as even a narrow victory will see them criticised.

Ireland captian Jamie Heaslip echos these sentiments. “You cannot win the Six Nations on the opening weekend of the tournament, but you can lose it,” he recently remarked. Heaslip retains the leadership role, despite the return of his Leinster colleague, the talismanic Brian O’Driscoll. This match-winning midfielder will bring potency and consistency to their attack.

Head coach Declan Kidney will rue the loss of Stephen Ferris although this is tempered by the rise of Chris Henry whose dynamic and intelligent performances for Ulster in the Heineken Cup have been amongst the most influential.

France are another team celebrating the return of a feared points accumulator in Frederic Michalak who has found a new lease of life playing alongside Jonny Wilkinson at Toulon. Michalak’s fellow backs will be hoping to feed from a dominant pack and will, in particular, look towards the sensational Wesley Fofana.

However, the Tricolore are struggling with injuries, particularly to Clerc whose 34 tries in 64 Tests demonstrate his threat. Les Blues will also miss full-back Brice Dulin leaving coach Philippe Saint-Andre complaining about the heavy domestic fixture list.

Scotland now boasts an Australian head coach in the form of Scott Johnson who was placed in temporary charge following the Tonga-defeat-induced resignation of Andy Robinson. He will hope that his introduction of 10 uncapped players will find the same level of inspiration that Lancaster witnessed when faced with a similar scenario 10 months ago.

Italy no longer consider themselves to be the team to make up the numbers and will be particularly relishing the prospect of following up on their defeat of Scotland. Their stand-out performer has been loose forward Sergio Parisse, although the sad reality is that the Azurri do not possess the depth to challenge. However, having recruited Frenchman Jacques Brunel as coach it will be increasing their possession that will be their focus of attention.

The Six Nations has added focus due to the impending selection for the summer Lions tour. Any single significant performance will propel the individual into Lions contention and will draw debate on their respective merits. 

Another dynamic, while further afield, is the 2015 World Cup. While no team will accept a run of defeats between now and then, several will have one eye on long-term opportunities by investing in youth in the short-term, helping offer experience to those with the most potential.

However, aspirations are one thing – delivering on them is completely different.

I struggle to see England completely eliminating the naivety they showed against Australia and will surely fall at some point. 

France seems to have accumulated a number of key injuries which will hamper their chances leading me to Wales and Ireland – ironically, the opening fixture!

Wales have injuries of their own and I remain unconvinced by Howley’s assertions that he can mould the fine individuals at his disposal into an effective team. 

I’m therefore backing Ireland to claim the title – although not confidently, and I could be eating humble pie by next week!