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Formula 1 is returning to Yas Marina next Sunday for the final race of the season, with Abu Dhabi’s first season-decider since 2021.
For the first time in 15 years, three drivers arrive with a mathematical chance of lifting the crown, with Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri having traded momentum throughout a season that refused to settle.
Now only 16 points separate the trio, and under the lights of Abu Dhabi, the championship becomes a test of nerve, execution and composure.
Here are some storylines to watch this weekend.
Steady Meets Relentless
Norris enters the finale with a 12-point lead and the simplest of equations – finish on the podium and he becomes World Champion regardless of anything Verstappen or Piastri produce.
The countback rules tilt decisively his way, and no tie on points can deny him.
Yet the pressure has intensified rather than eased.
McLaren’s strategy error in Qatar left him only fourth on a weekend that should have been a statement.
The last two races have yielded a modest 12 points in total.
In contrast, Verstappen has charged from 104 behind after Zandvoort to within striking distance.
Norris has the points, but Verstappen has the power.
This could become the biggest psychological test of Norris’s career.
The car suits Yas Marina and the target is clear, but he must deliver a top-three finish under circumstances where hesitation can unravel a season.
The title is his to lose, and that carries its own weight.
Verstappen knows the terrain and understands the psychological effect of leading early stints. If he qualifies strongly and dictates the rhythm, the burden tilts onto McLaren.
The title remains a difficult climb, but Verstappen is armed with experience, clarity and a late-season confidence that has rattled the Papaya camp.
If anything in this campaign has proven reliable, it is Verstappen’s refusal to concede until the final lap.
Dark Horse
Oscar Piastri enters as the outsider, 16 points behind Norris and needing a near-perfect weekend to remain in the conversation.
His P2 in Qatar showed he has rediscovered a clean rhythm at the right time, and the McLaren is well suited to the flow of Yas Marina.
For Piastri, the path is narrow.
Second place keeps him in play only if the race collapses around Norris and Verstappen.
Yet the more delicate storyline sits inside the McLaren garage.
The team reaffirmed its season-long stance: no team orders. No manipulation. A straight fight to the chequered flag.
In April that looked principled. In December, with a title at stake, it feels more combustible.
McLaren cannot ask Piastri to move aside, even if it secures the championship for Norris.
Piastri, chasing his first title chance, has no reason to step back.
The philosophy that has defined McLaren’s year may be tested this weekend.
Quiet Kingmakers
Away from the championship tension, Mercedes and Ferrari carry the potential to shape the outcome simply by racing at their natural pace.
Mercedes have been a frequent podium threat this season, with Russell winning twice and Antonelli growing stronger by the week.
If either inserts themselves into the top three, they could deny Norris the finish he needs or stop Verstappen and Piastri from controlling the front of the race.
Ferrari, locked into fourth in the standings, still possess enough speed to disrupt.
Abu Dhabi usually suits their stable operating window.
With no pressure from behind and no championship mathematics to consider, they can run aggressively on strategy.
Any unexpected podium challenge from red or silver could reshape the title outcome by accident rather than intent.
Market Pressure
The final race carries its own subtext, with several drivers racing for more than points.
Racing Bulls navigate a weekend where two 2026 seats remain uncertain. Isack Hadjar is widely expected to step into the senior Red Bull line-up, leaving Liam Lawson, Arvid Lindblad and Yuki Tsunoda fighting for relevance and every lap doubling as an audition.
Williams look to round off their strongest season in a decade.
Haas hope their recent upgrade continues to pay off.
Aston Martin and Sauber aim to steady narratives that slipped during the year.
While none of these teams influence the title directly, their ambitions create a more aggressive midfield, raising the risk of complications for the leaders during pit sequences or traffic.
Calm heads
Abu Dhabi rarely descends into chaos. Stable temperatures, predictable tyre behaviour and a layout that rewards discipline suggest a clean title fight.
Yet this season has shown that momentum can invert without warning.
Norris arrives with the points. Verstappen arrives with the pressure. Piastri arrives with the last sliver of hope.
The three drivers will have one evening to prove who is most worthy of the title in one of the closest seasons F1 has seen this century.
